ALU: CEO Combes makes case for Alcatel-Lucent's shift

While admitting that his company had missed the boat on a few major technology shifts, Alcatel-Lucent CEO Michel Combes asserted  at a symposium for analysts and journalists that the Shift Plan has his company back on track. The plan will see the company emphasize three focus areas that he believes will return the company to consistent profitability.
Combes told the audience at Alcatel-Lucent’s 2013 Technology Symposium in Basking Ridge, NJ, that the company had not been prepared for such technology shifts as the move to 10-Gbps DWDM in optical transport and CDMA in wireless. The Shift Plan will position the company not to make a similar faux pas as communications networks adapt to eight important trends Combes enumerated:
--An explosion of devices that will see users carrying 10 or more
--A resulting demand for ultra-fast access
--A concurrent requirement for ultra-fast core IP network resources
--The likelihood that cloud services instances will scale to the billions
--The expectation that telcos and cable MSO spending will grow faster thanks to investment in the preceding three areas
--Network infrastructures must create value by enabling rapid service turn up
--Large enterprises and the private sector will invest in carrier-grade network equipment and software
--The vendor community’s value proposition will move to support of cloud networking. Therefore, software and that ability to support application resources sharing will become more important parts of vendors’ product mixes.
Combes said that Alcatel-Lucent will react to these trends by focusing on technologies that support ultra-broadband service provision, cloud networking (which includes IP routing and optical transport), and monetizing its patent portfolio.

ALU is up 4 times, from ($1 to $4) per share last year in a good agreement with this forecast: http://iknowfirst.com/ALU_forecast_chart

How to double your nest eggs?

First of all don't put all your eggs in the same basket.

Buy the rips and sell the peaks.

Very simple, not?

But how can one predict the right market direction?

Stock Market Forecast is 'Gut Feeling' Challenge

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1499932-stock-mark

et-forecast-the-gut-feeling-challenge

Check also I Know First (the article authors) Sample Portfolio Returns 46.27% In Past 10 Months  http://iknowfirst.com/sample-portfolio-return-1-month

ALU: SDN $3.52 billion market by 2018

The interest in software-defined networking (SDN) will translate into a global market worth $3.52 billion by 2018, says Transparency Market Research. The market research firm’s new "Software Defined Networking (SDN) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast, 2012 - 2018" report predicts SDN spending worldwide will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 61.5% from 2012 to 2018.

The increasing need for efficient infrastructure and mobility, as well as the popularity of cloud services, will drive this growth, according to the report.

Transparency Research cites three main markets for SDN: enterprises, cloud services providers, and telecommunications services providers. Enterprises represented 35% of the SDN market in 2012. However, cloud service providers are expected to be the fastest growing market segment throughout the years the report covers. Transparency Research says that SDN’s ability to reduce opex and capex while enabling the delivery of new services will spearhead its use by cloud service providers.

Cloud provisioning and orchestration products currently dominate the global SDN market, the report states. SDN switching held the second largest revenue share of the SDN market in 2012. SDN products and applications also will be used to design, optimize, secure, and monitor the network, the market research firm predicts.

North America currently is the largest market for SDN technology, thanks to a high degree of standardization and favorable regulatory initiatives. Not surprisingly, Asia Pacific is expected to be the fastest growing region during forecast period, fueled by the increasing adoption of BYOD practices in China, India, and Australia.

In this early stage, the SDN industry is fragmented, the report asserts. Multiple players have moved to address different categories including hardware providers, software developers, and service providers. Transparency Research names Cisco, IBM, NEC, Juniper Networks, Alcatel-Lucent, VMware, HP, Google, Big Switch Networks, Arista Networks, Brocade Communications Systems, Verizon Communications, and Intel among the primary players.

Software Defined Networking (SDN) Market has big gross margin, so ALU and other players will benefit from this $3.52 billion pie.

CSCO: Internet over Everything - $14.4 trillion value by 2022

 

Cisco gets over-excited about IoE.

Cisco has been thinking big on what it's been calling the Internet of Everything. At a recent press event it came up with $14.4 trillion total value by 2022. This might make other interested parties nervous. 

Oh dear. Remember the Gartner hype cycle? It was a wonderfully Tolkienesque take on IT tech hype. The hype cycle starts, said Gartner, with some sort of technology trigger/breakthrough and then moves quickly up to the Peak of Inflated Expectations, plunges into the Trough of Disillusionment, trudges wearily up the Slope of Enlightenment until closure is reached on the Plateau of Productivity. 

The problem is that Cisco's latest numerical outpouring may be urging the industry to climb the dreaded Peak of Inflated Expectations. Just sayin'.

So hype or what? After all, Cisco has form on big number-itis - in fact it recently downgraded its projections on data growth across the Internet. Might it not be getting over-excited again?

Cisco's own definition of the 'Internet of Everything' wraps up the current Internet and all its doings (mobile and video) along with the emerging Internet of Things to come up with huge numbers of dollar worth.  All this connectedness, says Cisco, will result in a boost to corporate profits of 21 per cent by 2022, thus ker-chinging $14.4 trillion into the corporate world.

But how can a ten year projection on as yet vague applications and services be trusted to mean anything at all?  Too many variables operating across too long a time-span, surely?

It's all carefully done using a bottom-up methodology, claimed the networking giant. The presentation given this week itemised where Cisco expects the value to turn up.  According to Fredrick Paul at Read/Write Enterprise it was broken down thus:

- $2.5 trillion in better asset utilisation

- $2.5 trillion in employee productivity

- $2.7 in supply chain logistics

- $3.7 trillion in better customer experience.

- $3 trillion in enabling new innovations.

In fact, Cisco's Internet of Everything wraps together all the big IT/networking trends, such as big data, mobile and cloud as well as the impact of connected devices

Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A BRK.B): Annual shareholder letter

Mr. Buffet is optimistic on 2013.
It is in a good agreement with  ** I Know First system ** positive stance on the US economy.
Perhaps the most amazing fact is that the S&P 500 in gold stood at 1.1 ounces on October 1928, giving us a price higher than the ratio today. There has been a long stream of dividends since then, but the real price of the equity market is lower today than the level of 84 years ago!
Warren Buffet is hunting for elephants and a bear.
The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway’s  annual letter to shareholders Friday acknowledged sub-par performance in 2012, but proved as readable and quotable as any of his previous  epistles on investing.
You can look through the whole thing here, including as easily digested discussions of accounting as you’re ever likely to see.
But for those with limited time, here’s a look just at 1 of the pithier comments.
Mr. Buffet on the search for new investment opportunities for Berkshire’s huge cash reserves after the acquisition of half of Heinz  HNZ  last month:
 “Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants".
Regarding Apple:

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has dropped 50% on multiple occasions says Warren Buffett, responding on CNBC to a question about Apple (AAPL). "You can't run a business to make the stock price go up every day," he says, though allowing Apple may have too much cash.

Great news for ALU: China to require FTTH for new homes

China Daily reports that a new policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will mandate that all new residences have a fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) connection where such broadband access networks are available. 

The policy, which goes into effect April 1 of this year.

Alcatel-Lucent  has been chosen to expand China Telecom’s broadband access network, bringing services such as IPTV, video-on-demand, and voice-over-IP (VoIP) services to millions of homes in China.

2013: The world becomes increasingly connected and mobile, the world becomes increasingly connected and mobile

If the past year could be defined by a few big headlines, one would be “Economic Crunch Hasn’t Slowed Urgency for Network Capacity.” Or how about “Network Players Constantly Evolving Business Models to Support New Era of Connected Living”?

These overarching themes will keep evolving in 2013. As the world becomes increasingly connected and mobile, all of the tech companies that touch the network are pushed to find new ways to remain relevant to survive. They must continue honing their business models and operations for maximum efficiency in an unpredictable economic environment. They must continue building out faster and more flexible networks to support increasing and more random traffic patterns. And they must continue to create innovative products and services that support our need for instant access via new apps and the next shiny and new connected device that captivates us based on increasingly shorter product cycles.

This is not breaking news, but themes that will intensify throughout 2013. Here’s a look at how these themes will play out in various aspects of optical networking.

Network providers rally behind 100G, self-aware networks; 400G on the horizon

To bolster and speed up network infrastructures, network operators began volume implementations of 100G optical equipment in 2012. 100G took off much more quickly than 40G, as all network players bought into to the overarching need for 100G and developed a healthy supply chain with a variety of competing building blocks.

Many experts believe 100G will play a central role in transmission much the way 10G did in the past. 100G creates a new baseline for network performance by using bandwidth in an efficient way; it aligns with 100GbE standards, and today’s 100G technology is expected to serve as the foundation for higher transmission line rates in the future.

With 100G in full swing in 2013, many will look ahead to 400G. Most agree that 400G will be implemented in two forms with either four 100G dual-polarization quadrature phase-shift keying (DP-QPSK) modulated wavelengths or two 200-Gbps wavelengths encoded with dual polarization 16QAM. Each approach has its benefits and drawbacks. DP-QPSK modulation provides better performance over long distances but consumes more spectrum within the fiber; 16QAM suffers from shorter reach but offers more efficient spectrum use.

The 16QAM option will likely be a good fit for areas of high population density, such as Europe and the East Coast of the United States, where the end-to-end service distances are shorter. The DP-QPSK option will be necessary where distances between major population centers are greater, such as the rest of North America. Since many of the technologies for 400G are very similar to 100G and exist today, the industry could see initial deployments in late 2013 or early 2014.

Alcatel-Lucent source: Capella’s WSS products are “strategic to our business.”

Alcatel-Lucent acquires Capella for WSS technology

Alcatel-Lucent  has shored up its in-house optical transport expertise with the acquisition of wavelength-selective switch (WSS) developer Capella Intelligent Subsystems Inc. (a.k.a. Capella Photonics).

The privately held Capella was one of the few independent vendors of WSS subsystems for reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers (ROADMs) in the optical communications market.

ECI Telecom was one of Capella main customers.

The deal was first reported by Ray Le Maistre of Light Reading. In confirming that report, an Alcatel-Lucent source described Capella’s WSS products as “strategic to our business.” The source declined to provide other details of the transaction, other than to say, ”the acquisition was not considered material.”

Capella was founded in 2000. Investors have included Formative Ventures, Levensohn Venture Partners, Lucas Venture Partners, Rustic Canyon Partners, Silicon Valley Bank, Saints Capital and Black Diamond Ventures. SingTel Innov8 joined as strategic investor in early 2011. Executives included Larry Schwerin as CEO, Bruce Gray as president, and George Berberis as COO.

The company’s last announced new product was the CR-EX 1x20 WSS subsystem.

ALU update: Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks, has launched marine route survey activities in the United States and Brazil

Seaborn Networks says that its contractor, Alcatel-Lucent Submarine Networks, has launched marine route survey activities in the United States and Brazil ahead of the deployment of the Seabras-1 undersea cable project.

 The submarine fiber-optic network will link the two countries with a capacity of 32 Tbps.

In addition to connecting Sao Paolo to New York, Seabras-1 also will have a branch that lands in Fortaleza, Brazil. Tata Communications has raised its hand to be the anchor customer.

Alcatel-Lucent revealed last October that it had won the contract to build the network, including the provision of the company’s 1620 Light Manager (LM) submarine line terminal equipment.

"We are pleased to announce this important milestone as part of the overall implementation of Seabras-1,” said Larry Schwartz, CEO of Seaborn Networks. “Together with the permit acquisition work currently underway and the completion of the cable route study, the marine surveys represent excellent progress as we maintain the schedule for Seabras-1 to enter service in the first quarter of 2015."