Saturday, December 10, 2011

Shall Greece design a new drachma?

On Friday, December 9, 17 countries of the euro zone formally agreed to run only minimal budget deficits in the future and gave the European Court of Justice the right to strike down national laws that could lead to governments overspending.
“We have a very good result,” said the president of the European Parliament, Jerzy Buzek.
Europe might be on sounder fiscal footing after Friday's historic pact for more coordination among nations. The markets had big hopes on the results: CAC40 and EUR Stoxx 50 were colored green.
Good for the future, but the drastic steps did little, however, to bring down the sky-high bond yields plaguing some European nations now.
Europe has two problems—the weak economy and the financial phenomenon.The financial problem can be fixed in the shorter term. The other one isn't going to be. Even Europe solves its financial crisis and avoids a breakup; it still has to deal with its economic doldrums. Across the Continent, nations are cutting their budgets, which could weigh on growth.
What of the embattled euro itself? It is likely to stay under pressure because even the so-called solutions to the fiscal disaster are negative for the currency. Austerity measures, for instance, will likely cause the euro-zone economy to slow, which is typically bearish for a currency. And if the ECB steps in to buy bonds, that could cause the euro to drop as well.
I like Greece, see my notes from our last October visit to Crete , in current EUR situation it is the time for Greece to design beautiful new drachma banknotes.  

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Watch Friday, December the 9th


We are in a very interesting week for the markets.
Commodities will be the stars of the week
IMHO gold is a better long term bet than silver.
The advantage of Gold and Silver are that they are unprintable.
Companies are upping Gold Forecasts:
At high level of negativity that surrounds the current investing and trading environment, the stock market could not continue  to hold up  despite continued bad news out of Europe, weakening economic data in Asia,and decent but not great news in US.


Sunday, December 4, 2011

Good news for Ciena Corporation (NASDAQ: CIEN) and EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. ( Public, NASDAQ: EZCH )

In recent days it was announced that  UK BT and Australia AAPT selected Ciena for Carrier Ethernet services build-out.
It is in a good agreement with analysts estimations that though overall Telco Capex to be soft, the carrier Ethernet Equipment market is expected to be an area of strength as carries increasingly use Ethernet gear to cope with soaring Internet traffic instead of more costly legacy technology.
The UN's Broadband Commission for Digital Development set target for Broadband Equipment Market to grow by 40%.
I wrote about it on October 25:
http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/10/good-news-for-alu-csco-jnpr-si-eric.html
Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN) as equipment maker and EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. ( Public, NASDAQ: EZCH ) chip maker are in the same boat, that depends heavily on carrier Ethernet demand.
Ciena Corporation  (NASDAQ: CIEN) is a provider of communications networking equipment, software and services that support the transport, switching, aggregation and management of voice, video and data traffic. The Company’s packet-optical transport, packet-optical switching and carrier Ethernet service delivery products are used, individually or as part of an integrated solution, in networks operated by communications service providers, cable operators, governments and enterprises globally. Its communications networking products, through their embedded software and its network management software suites enable network operators to deliver enterprise communication services. The Company operates in four segments: packet-optical transport, packet-optical switching, carrier Ethernet Service delivery, and software and services. On March 19, 2010, the Company acquired optical networking and Carrier Ethernet assets of Nortel’s Metro Ethernet Networks business (MEN Business).

BT Group PLC (LSE: BT.A) is getting ready for the 100-Gbps era and beyond, judging from the news that it’s picked Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) to supply packet-optical transport equipment for its core 21st Century Network (21CN).
By deploying products from across Ciena's transport and switching portfolio, including 6500 and 4200 platforms, BT can take advantage of Ciena's multi-layer, multi-domain management suite – OneControl. The unified management system will be integrated into BT's existing operations support systems, offering service lifecycle control and monitoring for the entire network. 
Ciena has been a strategic supplier to BT since 2003. The company provides high-capacity transmission and switching equipment, which serves as the foundation for much of BT's existing network infrastructure .
BT to increase core network capacity at 21CN
Now BT plans to install intelligent optical transmission infrastructure based on Ciena’s 6500 packet-optical platform equipped with WaveLogic coherent optical processors. Ciena’s coherent technology supports 10G and 40G/100G wavelengths working side by side.
AAPT selects Ciena for Carrier Ethernet services buildout
Australian carrier AAPT has picked Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) to upgrade its nationwide fiber-optic network with next-generation Carrier Ethernet service delivery capabilities.
The upgrade will help AAPT to meet growing demand from businesses across Australia for high-quality Ethernet business services, providing reliable Ethernet private line and wide area LAN services to retail service providers. It will allow AAPT’s customers to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency applications such as streaming video, cloud networking, business-to-business commerce, wireless backhaul, and wholesale connectivity.
With construction of Australia’s National Broadband Network (NBN) underway, AAPT says the upgraded network will address both pent-up demand for ultrafast broadband services, and position AAPT as a competitive supplier in Ethernet business services when the NBN becomes generally available.
The network will be built on Ciena’s 5410 and 5150 service aggregation switches, augmenting AAPT’s existing IP/MPLS core network. The new Carrier Ethernet network will deliver transport-class Ethernet services that far exceed the quality-of-service associated with traditional Ethernet while improving the service flexibility and speed-to-market delivered via traditional TDM networks.
“AAPT is focused on meeting our customer demands and expectations for the highest-quality Ethernet services in the Australian market. With this network build, we’re able to meet those goals and even offer customers strict Service Level Agreements, while maintaining low network operations costs. With a network scalable to the terabit-level, we can virtually meet any future demand for high-performance applications that may be enabled in the era of NBN,” said David Yuile, CEO, AAPT.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Switzerland to shut down nuclear power by 2034

Today more than 40% of  Switzerland energy comes from nuclear power plants.
The vote in upper parliament chamber to shut down the nuclear power plants, followed a June decision by the lower chamber of parliament to back an exit from nuclear energy recommended by the government, which had earlier frozen plans for a new construction programme after the explosions and meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Green Cross International's president Mikhail Gorbachev, welcomed Switzerland's decision.
"I applaud Switzerland for taking this brave step towards ending its reliance on nuclear energy,"  said Michael Gorbachev, in a statement.
I wrote about similar Germany and Japan decisions to phase out nuclear energy in this blog.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Companies are preparing for possible break up of the EU zone

World Class Companies with good BCP procedures ( Business Continuity Plans ) are preparing contingency plans for possible end of euro.
I wrote about EU/$ forecast and dynamics on October 30 and  October 22 in this blog:

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Black Friday 2011 on line deals

Below is a list of Black Friday products that are currently available for ordering at the Black Friday price! Using our real time tracking system, this list will be updated by from now through the weekend of Black Friday. We strongly suggest you bookmark this page and keep checking back often for the latest additions to the list.

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Black Friday 2011 spending forecast -$704 more optimistic than 2010 forecast of $688

According to National Retail Federation (NRF):
In 2010 actual Black Friday spending was $719 versus forecast of $688.
For 2011 forecast is $704 and it is important to see the actual Black Friday spending this year versus the forecast, in order to evaluate the current state of economy.
Black Friday 2011 is the day after Thanksgiving, November 25 2011. 
It officially kicks off the holiday shopping season, as 195 million shoppers usually hit stores during the Black Friday weekend.
Nearly 20% of retail sales occur between Black Friday through Christmas. For some retailers, such as jewelers, it can be as high as 40%.
For 2011, the NRF said that shoppers usually spend about half of their total holiday gift shopping on Black Friday. The NRF forecast that shoppers are more optimistic in 2011 than they were last year. Holiday sales will be up 2.8% to $465.6 billion. This is higher than the 2.6% increase experienced in the last ten years, but lower than the norm (3.4% annual increase) for the decade before the 2008 financial crisis. It's unlikely growth will return to those levels anytime soon, since most of this spending was fueled with credit card debt. This debt has been declining in the last three years.
On average, each shoppers said they expect to spend $704 in 2011. However, it's possible they could spend more than their expectations, because that's just what happened during Black Friday 2010. They said they would spend $688 each, but they actually spent $719 each. Shoppers will spend less than the all-time high of $755 per person set in 2007. It's much better than the recessionary low of $682 per shopper set in 2009.

Friday, November 18, 2011

Due to the Thailand flood Japanese investors may shift to Vietnam and Indonesia

Following my previous post on Thailand floods impact on the Hi-Tech Industry World Wide,
Japanese investors may shift to Vietnam and Indonesia. 
Japanese firms are Thailand's biggest foreign investors and the recent trend of accelerating investment into Thailand will slow down even though the country is an ideal destination for investors, the report said. Japanese companies may shift their investments from Thailand to Vietnam and Indonesia due to the Thailand flood, according to a Bloomberg report. The recent flooding, the worst the country has experienced in 70 years, has disrupted global production and supply chains.
The report also said the tragedy has rippled through the supply chains of Japanese auto and electronics makers, as parts shortages affected operations across the globe.
Takahiro Sekido, Credit Agricole's chief economist for Japan, was quoted saying "Executives recognize the concentration risk after the floods."
Tokyo's Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Tohru Nishihama said that Thailand's neighboring countries, specifically Vietnam and Indonesia, are set to attract more Japanese investments. The two countries attracted more foreign direct investment than Thailand last year.
Thailand enjoyed steady growth from 2000 to 2008, averaging more than 4 percent CAGR per year, due to its well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, generally pro-investment policies and strong export industries. The country exports mostly machinery and electronic components, agricultural commodities and jewelry. These sectors continue to drive the economy, accounting for as much as three-quarters of Thailand's GDP.
Vietnam, on the other hand, is also a magnet for foreign direct investment, the report said. The success of doing business in Vietnam is greatly facilitated by the ability to put through effective corporate structure and financial management system to deal with foreign investment laws, taxation, accounting and foreign exchange issues in Vietnam.
The investment registration process and tax management in Vietnam is decentralized, with the municipal and provincial authorities having significant discretions on how businesses are established and managed from a tax and accounting angle. Having a good local partner, experienced staff and localized professional support would greatly assist in the initial startup stage.
http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/11/thailand-floods-impact-on-hi-tech.htmll

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Thailand floods impact on the Hi-Tech Industry World Wide - AAPL, DELL

Following rumors of possible delays of Apple ( AAPL) products to  reach the market in Holiday buying season, Dell has warned its revenues could be hit by a worldwide shortage of hard drives caused by the flooding in Thailand. Thailand is a production hub for many global firms, and severe flooding has hurt a wide range of industries. US-based Dell is the world's third-largest personal computer maker. The earnings warning came as Dell announced revenues of $15.4bn and net profits of $893m for the third quarter of 2011. Dell has warned its revenues could be hit by a worldwide shortage of hard drives caused by the flooding in Thailand. Thailand is a production hub for many global firms, and severe flooding has hurt a wide range of industries. US-based Dell is the world's third-largest personal computer maker. The earnings warning came as Dell announced revenues of $15.4bn and net profits of $893m for the third quarter of 2011. I am still bullish on DELL, IMHO the floods will affect DELL very temporally, see my previous post:

Saturday, November 12, 2011

It is time to buy now? Year-End Rally.

We had good October, despite Europe crisis.
Typically it  leads to 6% rally in 3 months.
While early  November was rocky, from mid-November until the end of the year is usually one of the best times to own stocks.
For example, in the 17 years from 1990 to 2006, the overall market as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($INX) has gained 5.9% on average. Equally impressive, the market scored gains in 13 of those years. It broke even (less than a 1% change) twice and dropped twice. Its biggest loss was 3.9%
Good Luck with this Year-End Rally!

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Next week EU/$ forecast

Next week EUR/USD forecast :Today it was published that Europe should not expect China to ride to the rescue as its "savior" from the debt crisis, though Beijing will do what it can to help a friend in need,
state-run agency Xinhua  said in commentary.

This commentary supports I KNOW FIRST system signal on EUR/$ south direction for coming week.
IMHO we will see $ correction next week.



Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weekly Prediction from October 23 : DELL up 5.8%, BGC up 23.1%, UURE up 71%

The stocks forecast published by I Know First system  on October 23 and actual stocks performance since the prediction date:
http://iknowfirst.com/node/195
IMHO one can count on this crystal ball .
P.S: regarding DELL analysts evaluations see our previous post:
http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/10/dell-deutsche-bank-reiterate-buy.html

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Good News for ALU, CSCO, JNPR, SI, ERIC


Good News for Alcatel Lucent (ALU), Cisco (CSCO) , Juniper Networks (JNPR), 
Siemens (SI) , Ericsson ( ERIC) and other Telecoms Equipment Manufactures
By 2015 Broadband Equipment Market will Grow by 40%
The UN has set four new targets for governments to provide broadband to citizens
The UN’s Broadband Commission for Digital Development has set four new targets for governments across the world to ensure citizens have sufficient broadband access. The targets, which the UN described as “ambitious but achievable” address broadband policy, affordability and uptake.
The first target is to make broadband policy universal. By 2015, The Comission wants all countries to have a national broadband plan or strategy, or to include broadband in their universal access and service definitions.
The second target is to make broadband affordable for all. The Commission said that by 2015, entry-level broadband services should be made affordable in developing countries through adequate regulation and market forces. Each country should also set key parameters; for example, the cost should amount to less than five per cent of average monthly income.
The third target is a push to get broadband access into homes. By 2015, 40 per cent of households in developing countries should have internet access, the Commission said.
The final target is to get people using the internet. The Commission has stated that, by 2015, internet user penetration should reach 60 per cent worldwide. 50 per cent of people in developing countries should have broadband access and a target of 15 per cent has been set for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
“These targets are ambitious but achievable, given the political will and commitment on the part of governments, working in partnership with the private sector,” said Dr Hamadoun TourĂ©, co-vice chair of the Commission and secretary-General of the ITU.
The ITU said that it will undertake the task of measuring each country’s progress towards the targets, and will produce an annual broadband report with rankings of nations worldwide in terms of broadband policy, affordability and uptake.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Currency Dynamics EUR/USD


EUR is up versus USD in recent days, but what next week will bring?


Ongoing euro negotiations have held the markets hostage this week.
Rumors of progress rally the euro, only to be followed by bear news which turns the market around.
There is a euro summit planned for the weekend, and, now, another planned for the 23rd.
Obviously if they had a solution, there would be fewer meetings.
I KNOW FIRST system model predictive Algorithm based on artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms detected smart money inflow to USD and is optimistic on USD.

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

DELL: Deutsche Bank reiterate 'Buy'


Deutsche Bank writes, "Dell is on the front side of a multi-year business model evolution towards higher margin products (storage, networking and services) and away from PCs. We believe margin expectations for 2H look conservative (DB at OMs of 7.2%) due to continued weak commodity costs, the migration towards enterprise and disciplined pricing. At 4x PE (ex cash) DELL appears cheap; reiterate 'Buy'."
It is in a good agreement with  analysts recommendations published here on September 15:

Merlin Securities initiated coverage on Dell   with a “buy” rating and a $22 price target
UBS was less cryptic, but no less enthusiastic:
 UBS believe that strong cash flows, relatively low exposure to consumer PC and valuation make the shares attractive.
I KNOW FIRST system model  predictive Algorithm based on artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms is optimistic on DELL 
http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/09/dell-analysts-current-recommendations.html

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Plutonium found as far as 28 miles from the damaged Fukushima but the Solar Sector is still heavily beaten on WS

In this days as the Solar Energy Sector is still heavily beaten on Wall Street.
Trace amounts of plutonium were found as far as 28 miles from the damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power plant, the first time that the dangerous element released from the accident was found outside of the immediate area of the plant.
The science ministry report issued Friday comes just as the government lifted one of its evacuation advisories, underscoring the difficulty of restoring normalcy and assuring the safety of residents around the crippled plant.
The government also reported a rare detection of strontium, another highly dangerous element, far from the crippled reactor, in one spot as far away as 50 miles. Most of the radioactive material discovered to date in the communities surrounding Fukushima Daiichi has been cesium or iodine.
The report said that the radiation from plutonium and strontium was "extremely low" compared to the high concentration of cesium, advising that the government maintain its focus on measuring and clearing the areas of cesium.
Still, the latest discovery is a potentially disturbing turn, as it shows that people relatively far from the plant could be exposed to more dangerous elements than had been previously disclosed.
While neither plutonium nor strontium emit powerful gamma rays like cesium and iodine, both deposit in the body—strontium in the bones, plutonium in the bones and lungs—and can cause cancer of leukemia once inhaled or ingested.
Both isotopes also have long half lives: it takes about 29 years for some forms of strontium to reduce by half, while plutonium isotopes have half-lives ranging from 88 years to over 24,000 years.
That makes them highly toxic in the body as they continue to emit alpha rays, and immensely difficult to get rid of in the environment.
The half-life of one of the most common iodine formations is eight days, while that for much of the cesium released is 30 years.
Specifically, Plutonium-238 believed to have been emitted from the damaged Fukushima reactors was found in soil samples from six separate locations, ranging from 0.55 to 4.0 becquerels per square meter. Samples from Iitate, a village located 28 miles from the power plant, registered 0.82 becquerels of Plutonium-238 and 2.5 becquerels of Plutonium-239 and -240. Iitate was evacuated earlier this year.
The finding comes from the science ministry's analysis of 100 soil samples taken within a 50-mile zone from the damaged plant between June and July.
Plutonium had previously been detected in Japan after atmospheric nuclear tests, sometimes at higher levels than were found from the June-July samples, a science ministry official said. However, the ministry cites higher-than-usual level of Plutonium-238 found in the soil samples from the six locations as evidence that plutonium release was not limited to the plant's compound.
Strontium-89 and -90 were also found in almost half of the 100 samples, in one case as far as the edge of the 50-mile zone registering measurement of 500 becquerels per square meter of Strontium-89 and 130 becquerels of Strontium-90.
Separately, reflecting the mounting costs of cleaning up from the accident, government agencies have requested about ¥400 billion, or about $5 billion, to cover the cost of cleaning up after the nuclear accident in the budget for the next fiscal year, beginning in April 2012, local media reported.
Germany learned the lesson very quikly:
25% from Solar in Germany is expected by 2050,  IMHO it will happen much early
Today Germany has 18GW nominal power of PV plants, actual PV current production various per day hours( 0-100%), you can check it on-line at http://bit.ly/obhhqH
Germany also decided to shut down all 17 nuclear plants ( 6 of them already are shuttered down) so the need for other energy sources is more urgent than in 2010

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204226204576604013365441594.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews

Thursday, September 15, 2011

DELL : Analysts current recommendations


Goldman Sachs reiterated its “sell” on Dell


Merlin Securities initiated coverage on Dell today with a “buy” rating and a $22 price target

UBS was less cryptic, but no less enthusiastic:
 UBS believe that strong cash flows, relatively low exposure to consumer PC and valuation make the shares attractive.

I KNOW FIRST system model  predictive Algorithm based on artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms is optimistic on DELL  (DELL@14.11)

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

FORECAST QUALITY: Stocks Actual Performance versus Forecast

FORECAST QUALITY is checked by comparison between - Stocks Actual Performance versus Forecast
I checked I KNOW FIRST system Forecast from June 19 for 30 days,
and actual stocks  performance at July 19 ( see link below)
IKF system  forecast was accurate  in 18 out of 22 recommendations                                           
The system is a predictive Algorithm that is based on artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.
I Know First Market Prediction System models and predicts the flow of money between the markets. It separates the predictable part from stochastic (random) noise. Then, it creates a model that projects the future trajectory of the given market in the multidimensional space of other markets.
The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with the wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap the trend. This helps the trader to decide which direction to trade, at what point to enter the trade, and when to exit.

Liken it to weather forecasting. It's never perfect, but they do  much better than random guessing.

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Can Apple maintain its lead without its "CVO," or what I like to call "Chief Visionary Officer?"


I think that some of the concern does revolve around Job's departure. Its hard to imagine him giving up the CEO position unless he's pretty sick, and thus unlikely to be involved in a major way going forward.
In the business world it is a common perception that "big companies don't innovate". So what has made Apple an exception? I suspect the answer is that Apple doesn't innovate, it is instead a facility for implementing Job's creativity. This point of view is supported by Job's unparalleled creativity, his obsessive involvement in details, and his autocratic management style. What other tech company has had a CEO with 313 US patents and 80 published patent applications?
A discounted cash flow analysis suggests the market believes that there are two or three years of growth left in Apple that will arise from existing products. Whether this is fair, I can't say.






Thursday, August 25, 2011

AAPL new era after Steve Jobs as CEO

As I updated yesterday blog followers, huge money  flow detected in AAPL   on August 24.

After the market’s close Apple announced executive changes. Tim Cook, formerly Apple’s COO, has been promoted to the CEO position. Apple co-founder and former CEO Steve Jobs has been elected board chair.
The shares swooned on the news in AH trading activity.
Apparently smart money movements during the day were connected to the announcement of executive changes. 
Tim Cook "the ideal candidate" for the role according to Appleinsider, and Cook has been lauded as an  operational genius.

UBS
Analyst Maynard Um with UBS remained optimistic about the news. "We expect there to be no transition issues as Cook had been running daily operations as interim-CEO," he said.
He sees Apple's longer-term strategy to be "well laid out" for Cook and the rest of the management team to continue to execute. Um also believes that Apple stock will not fall significantly because of the news, as investors have been anticipating the announcement.
"We would view any weakness as opportunity given our expectation for strong Sept and Dec quarters," he continued. In light of the transition and Apple's hefty cash balance, the analyst called for a share repurchase on the belief that it would be a "positive catalyst."
UBS maintains a Buy rating on Apple, with a 12-month $510 price target.

I KNOW FIRST system
based on  predictive algorithm using artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms - 
issued  negative short term forecast for AAPL  before the announcement of executive changes

J.P. Morgan
Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan described the Apple model as "built to last," reiterating the firm's Overweight rating and December 2012 price target of $525.
"We expect the news to create an attractive entry point for investors looking to add or build bigger positions in Apple. While the news could weigh on shares in the near term, we think the company’s model is built to last, sustaining a “digital way of life” that other industry participants have yet to rival," he said.
According to the analyst, Jobs had a lasting impact on his company that will cement its role in the digital age. "Jobs’ second term as Apple’s CEO drove a stunning recovery and then rise to dominance by constructing a world of mobile devices and content ubiquity."
"We believe that the level of creativity and intelligence assembled throughout the management team and legion of Apple employees can sustain the Apple model and its industry leadership," he continued, adding that he does not expect "too much to change" within the company. "In our view, the far-reaching successes of the iPhone, iPad, iPod, and MacBook Air reflect the work of many, not one."
Moskowitz has a "favorable view" of Cook's ability to lead, citing his proven track record and the integral role he played in "driving the company’s unprecedented revenue and earnings growth phase, limiting disruptions to the operations."
As with Um, the analyst believes Apple's stock has already been "partly discounted" in preparation of a CEO change. He cautioned that the stock will be "under pressure," but does not expect a downdraft.
Morgan Stanley
Analyst Katy Huberty sent a note to investors describing the news as a "well timed and planned leadership transition." She remains "highly confident" in the firm's near-term earnings per share estimates and continues to "rank Apple as best positioned to see upward earnings revision."
The analyst did remark that Jobs is "irreplaceable," while adding that Cook is has a "proven track record of execution." She noted that shares of Apple have generally declined 7 percent after previous health-related announcements from Jobs, before recovering 11 percent, 12 percent and 21 percent over the next 30, 60, and 90 days.
"While this transition is more permanent, it removes the overhang caused by uncertainty around the CEO transition," she added.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $468 price target. She also said her bull case scenario $50 EPS estimate is "still in the cards" for calendar year 2013.
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/11/08/24/wall_street_expects_smooth_transition_from_steve_jobs_to_tim_cook.html

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Stock Market Forecast: Is now the time to load up on dips?


The clouds still cover the Markets.
For the fourth consecutive week,  the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in the red after another volatile ride.
Another week, another bruising for U.S. stock investors.
In the final two days alone, the Dow dropped 5.2%. On Friday, the index declined 172.93 points, or 1.6%, to 10817.65. It is now down 11% for the month of August and 6.6% for the year.
Friday was a day of relatively few bad-news headlines for U.S. stock investors. But they sold anyway.
Investors' nerves appeared to still be frayed from the relentless patina of gloomy news over the U.S. economy and Europe's debt troubles. The concerns about of the U.S. sliding back into recession gained traction this week as a stream of economic data pointed to signs of slowing activity.

In my opinion we are not sliding into recession and the time to buy on dips is near.
It is in a good agreement with http://iknowfirst.com/
The question is how to make the rights pics?
This week 5 stock pics to load up:  BP,  AMAT, BGC, TNE, WAG.
Good Luck and a Great weekend to all of us!

Monday, August 1, 2011

AAPL: Smartphone sales to cross 1B by 2016

Bright future for Apple
 IMS Research has forecasted that smartphone sales will eclipse 420 million devices in 2011 and will make up about 28 percent of the global handset .  Annual sales are also expected to top one billion devices by the end of 2016 due to the release of more affordable entry-level smartphones, accounting for one of every two mobile handsets sold.
"But despite the higher margins for smartphones, and the seemingly insatiable consumer appetite for converged devices, it is clear that not all OEMs are equally positioned to capitalize on this market trend," said Josh Builta, analyst in IMS' mobile technologies group. "For instance, LG, despite being the third largest OEM in the world, has offered a fairly limited smartphone portfolio in recent years, a factor that resulted in the company reaching less than a three percent share of the total smartphone market in 2010."


In recent years, no company has flourished in this environment as much as Apple .
The company's 2Q11 results in which it reported record sales of more than 
20 million iPhones indicates it can be expected to remain an influential 
presence in the market despite the increased competition.
However, Apple is not alone in its success. Of the traditional handset 

manufacturers, Samsung has demonstrated the best results in recent years. 
Capitalizing on its diverse portfolio that includes devices using the company's
 own bada operating system along with Android and Windows Mobile
 as well as its Galaxy series, Samsung smartphone market share
 increased from about three percent in 1Q10 to over 13 percent in 1Q11. 
Smaller, dedicated smartphone vendors such as HTC have also
 seen their position rise.
"These companies are well positioned to benefit from the projected

 growth of the smartphone market in the future. Though the other
 OEMs are stepping up their efforts in the space, companies such 
as Apple, HTC and Samsung have a considerable amount of momentum. 
Catching them will not be an easy task," Builta noted.


Sunday, July 31, 2011

AAPL: iPhone doubles world market share, outpaces rivals

Released yesterday, IDC's report found that Apple shipped 20.3 million iPhones in the quarter, a leap of 142 percent from the 8.4 million shipped in the prior year's quarter. Among the top five vendors, Apple also saw the biggest jump in market share, capturing 5.6 percent of global mobile-phone shipments, compared with 2.6 percent a year ago.

Saturday, July 30, 2011

Currencies forecast - Big Mac index

Economist Magazine has changed the way the calculation of the Index BIG - Mac, which examines the world's foreign exchange rates based on the price of a Big patty - Mac restaurants McDonald's, based on the assumption that it represents the purchasing power of currency.
The new calculation method is based on the same basic principle of the famous hamburger price comparison in different countries, but unlike the original index, also plays in calculating per capita GDP of each country. According to the Economist, the change is because prices in poorer countries that are cheaper because labor costs are lower , as evidenced by the strong positive correlation between the dollar price of Big Mac and GDP per capita.
For example, the updated index against the dollar was trading higher at the gate by 43% fair value, while according to the old version of this index was strong in 15% of its real value against the dollar.
China's currency, the yuan, was trading slightly above the real value against the dollar by the updated index, while the old index on the Chinese currency was trading lower at 44% of its value.
According to the updated index, the excessive currency exchange traded against the dollar is the currency of Brazil, the Real, which was trading higher at the gate value 149% fair

.According to gross index strengthen the real version 52% against the dollar.
For the latest currencies and forex forecast:
http://iknowfirst.com/node/137

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Monday, July 25, 2011

LDK is still extremely undervalued as Sharp President Pushes Solar Power in Japan's Nuclear Wake

LDK is still extremely undervalued, as Japan rethinks its dependence on nuclear energy in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident,
Sharp Corp. is out front in the discussion over what's next.
Sharp President Pushes Solar Power in Japan's Nuclear Wake
A proposed shift in Japan's energy policy could mean higher electricity costs for Sharp and its fellow manufacturers. Sharp—whose biggest businesses are liquid-crystal display panels and television sets—is a member Keidanren, a powerful Japanese business lobby opposed to the proposed renewable energy bills.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424...

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Japan Energy-Short: Savings Now, Eyes Renewable Future - 53 GW installations by 2030

Japan has aggressively sought to upgrade its solar potential—a cause taken up byJapan PM, Mr. Kan before he survived a no-confidence vote earlier this month. The country has set a goal of increasing solar photovoltaics, mostly in rooftop panels, from 3,500 megawatts in 2010 to 53,000 megawatts by 2030. Beyond Mr. Kan's target of powering 10 million homes by 2020, there would be enough solar photovoltaics to power 18 million Japanese homes by 2030.

About Japan energy saving now read more.

Solar companies like LDK would profit from this Japan goal.

Monday, July 18, 2011

APPL goes to multisource approach.

Apple to use both Samsung, TSMC?
APPL goes to multisource approach.
Very wise IMHO.
Any thoughts?

http://www.eetasia.com/ART_8800647149_499489_NT_7bfed2b6.HTM
Several reports have come out that APPLE Inc. is going to drop SAMSUNG Electronics Co. Ltd as the manufacturer for its iPad processors, the A6. There are also reports saying that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd ( TSMC) will be the alternative manufacturer of the A6. It was also mentioned that Intel is also eyeing to get the Apple foundry deal.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

Only 18 of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors remain operational.

Japan's Ohi nuclear reactor shuts down after fault
Japan court orders reactor closed
Japan's Ohi nuclear power station is being shut down, after a technical fault.
Pressure in a safety tank fell for no apparent reason, and although it is now back to normal, the plant's operators said they would "give the top priority to safety and find out the cause".
There was no release of radioactive material.
The closure will compound power difficulties in the wake of March's earthquake and tsunami.
There has been growing public disquiet over the continuing crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which was damaged by the disaster.
Fukushima continues to leak radioactive material.
Pressure in a tank containing boric acid, which is used to slow down nuclear fission in emergencies, dropped on Friday at Ohi's No 1 reactor.
The reactor, 350 km (220 miles) west of Tokyo, has a capacity of 1.18m kW.
With the closure at Ohi, only 18 of Japan's 54 reactors remain operational.
Japanese expert urges would-be users of nuclear power to adopt alternative energy sources instead
http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/econ...
As per common sense alternative energy companies shares like LDK, STP should reflect adoptation of the Green energy sources but money still does not flow in LDK at this stage.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

PSTI: Up 37.7% according to the forecast from June10@2.65

Check this
According to: I Know First forecast from June 10@2.65
PSTI is up 37.7% from $2.65 to $3.65 in a month from the forecast
http://iknowfirst.com/node/128 

Thursday, July 7, 2011

I Know First review: actual stock performance versus forecast

My way to evaluate the accuracy and the quality of stock forecasts is by real time comparison between companies' recommendations on stocks and the actual stock's performance.  
I have just followed the recommended stocks and compared the end price with the stock baseline price. After trying different systems, this month I have tried I KNOW FIRST algorithmic system.

This system recent stock forecasts.
Some results:PSTI and GT are up by 18% since this forecast, S& P500 rose by 5.2%
In accordance with the IKF forecast for Sunday, Gold soars to 2-week high
Basic principle of this system: I Know First  system is a predictive Algorithm that based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.
This system models and predicts the flow of money between the markets. It separates the predictable part from stochastic (random) noise. Then, it creates a model that projects the future trajectory of the given market in the multidimensional space of other markets.
The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with the wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap the trend. This helps the trader to decide which direction to trade, at what point to enter the trade, and when to exit.
The model is 100% empirical, meaning it is based on historical data and not on any human derived assumptions. The human factor is only involved in building the mathematical framework and initially presenting to the system the "starting set" of inputs and outputs.
My conclusion: 
Interesting, we are quickly becoming a society in which machines do much of our work. This is an exciting age for traders and brokers, because there is now online access to stock market forecast algorithms which can help make more profitable trades and spend less time wondering why you didn’t place the most intelligent trade you could. 
Traders everywhere are able to reap the rewards of higher intelligence, with more up to date and accurate stock forecast at the fingertips of every person investing in the stock market.
Some interesting articles published by I Know First:






Monday, July 4, 2011

Japan poll 60% supports solar even with higher electric prices

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/2011...

More than 50 percent of people in Japan do not want nuclear reactors that have been taken out of operation to be restarted, a Mainichi poll suggests.

A total of 51 percent of respondents in a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted over the weekend said they were opposed to restarting nuclear reactors that have been stopped for inspections, surpassing the 37 percent who said they wanted the reactors to be restarted.

Fearing a shortage of electricity this summer, the government has issued a nuclear power safety declaration and asked local officials in Saga Prefecture to restart the Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in the prefecture. However, it appears that the public has grown cautious about restarting reactors in the wake of the crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant.

By gender, 41 percent of men opposed the restarting of reactors and 51 percent were in favor, but at the same time 58 percent of women were opposed and just 27 percent were in favor.

A total of 60 percent of respondents said they would accept an increase in electricity prices to support the increased use of natural energy such as solar and wind power. Another 31 percent said they could not accept a hike. Among those in favor of restarting nuclear reactors, 68 percent said they would accept an increase to support natural energy.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan has made the enactment of a bill on set-price purchasing of renewable energy in a move toward increased use of natural energy as one of the three conditions for his retirement from office. Economic quarters fear the possibility of rising costs associated with an increase in power fees, but the results of the poll suggest that regardless of whether nuclear power plants are restarted or not, people believe there is a need in the future to do away with nuclear power plants and switch to natural energy....

Tepco breakdown by the Goverment of Japan

here's the link:
This will support transfer to the Green Energy.

Wishing everyone a fantastic weekend!
For the United States  having Holiday the 4th of July, 
Congratulations!  
We want to wish every one a fantastic weekend all over the world, stay safe and god bless.

Thursday, June 30, 2011

LVLT: up 68% from the Forecast at May 1, 2011- High Quality Forecast

On May 1, it was published by " I Know First" positive forecast for Level 3 (LVLT@$1.64) http://iknowfirst.com/node/82
today LVLT is trading for $2.40 - 68% up from the forecast.
Forecast System Quality is measured by comparision between the forecast and the actual stock performance.

Monday, June 27, 2011

LDK ADS price is grossly undervalued: Announces Share Repurchase Program

As we previously estimated LDK is highly undervalued

See our post and comment from May 23, 2011:
http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/05/china-gets-60-of-2010-global-solar.html


XINYU CITY, China and SUNNYVALE, Calif., June 27, 2011 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --
LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (NYSE: LDK), a leading vertically integrated manufacturer of photovoltaic products, today announced that its Board of Directors approved a share buyback program that authorizes LDK Solar to repurchase up to US$110 million of its American Depository Shares ("ADSs") in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions. The program does not obligate LDK Solar to acquire any particular amount of its ADSs and may be modified or suspended at any time at the sole discretion of LDK Solar.

Mr. Xiaofeng Peng, Chairman and CEO of LDK Solar, commented, "We remain confident in our current outlook as well as the long-term prospects for our business. However, we believe our ADSs are currently grossly undervalued. We believe our share buyback program not only represents a good investment for our company, but also demonstrates our commitment to enhance shareholder value." 

Sunday, June 26, 2011

FORECAST QUALITY: Stocks Actual Performance versus Forecast

Forecast from June 14, 2011 in Green  Actual performance in Blue