Companies are preparing for possible break up of the EU zone

World Class Companies with good BCP procedures ( Business Continuity Plans ) are preparing contingency plans for possible end of euro.

I wrote about EU/$ forecast and dynamics on October 30 and  October 22 in this blog:

 http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/10/next-week-eu-forecast.html

Article in FT from November 29, supports those forecasts.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/25ab975a-1a9f-11e1-ae14-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1fBAzvWCE

Black Friday 2011 on line deals

Below is a list of Black Friday products that are currently available for ordering at the Black Friday price! Using our real time tracking system, this list will be updated by from now through the weekend of Black Friday. We strongly suggest you bookmark this page and keep checking back often for the latest additions to the list.

http://land8.iknowfirst.com/index.html
http://store.apple.com/us?cid=CDM-US-DM-HOL-P0011109-CON&cp=em-P0011109-180318&sr=em
http://shop.lenovo.com/us/landing_pages/laptops/promos-coupons
http://specialoffers.verizonwireless.com/holiday/2011/?cmp=BAC-OM-111129-HOLIDAYSAMSUNG

Black Friday 2011 spending forecast -$704 more optimistic than 2010 forecast of $688

According to National Retail Federation (NRF):

In 2010 actual Black Friday spending was $719 versus forecast of $688.

For 2011 forecast is $704 and it is important to see the actual Black Friday spending this year versus the forecast, in order to evaluate the current state of economy.

Black Friday 2011 is the day after Thanksgiving, November 25 2011. 

It officially kicks off the holiday shopping season, as 195 million shoppers usually hit stores during the Black Friday weekend.

Nearly 20% of retail sales occur between Black Friday through Christmas. For some retailers, such as jewelers, it can be as high as 40%.

For 2011, the NRF said that shoppers usually spend about half of their total holiday gift shopping on Black Friday. The NRF forecast that shoppers are more optimistic in 2011 than they were last year. Holiday sales will be up 2.8% to $465.6 billion. This is higher than the 2.6% increase experienced in the last ten years, but lower than the norm (3.4% annual increase) for the decade before the 2008 financial crisis. It's unlikely growth will return to those levels anytime soon, since most of this spending was fueled with credit card debt. This debt has been declining in the last three years.

On average, each shoppers said they expect to spend $704 in 2011. However, it's possible they could spend more than their expectations, because that's just what happened during Black Friday 2010. They said they would spend $688 each, but they actually spent $719 each. Shoppers will spend less than the all-time high of $755 per person set in 2007. It's much better than the recessionary low of $682 per shopper set in 2009.

Due to the Thailand flood Japanese investors may shift to Vietnam and Indonesia

Following my previous post on Thailand floods impact on the Hi-Tech Industry World Wide,

Japanese investors may shift to Vietnam and Indonesia. 
Japanese firms are Thailand's biggest foreign investors and the recent trend of accelerating investment into Thailand will slow down even though the country is an ideal destination for investors, the report said. Japanese companies may shift their investments from Thailand to Vietnam and Indonesia due to the Thailand flood, according to a Bloomberg report. The recent flooding, the worst the country has experienced in 70 years, has disrupted global production and supply chains.

The report also said the tragedy has rippled through the supply chains of Japanese auto and electronics makers, as parts shortages affected operations across the globe.

Takahiro Sekido, Credit Agricole's chief economist for Japan, was quoted saying "Executives recognize the concentration risk after the floods."

Tokyo's Dai-ichi Life Research Institute economist Tohru Nishihama said that Thailand's neighboring countries, specifically Vietnam and Indonesia, are set to attract more Japanese investments. The two countries attracted more foreign direct investment than Thailand last year.

Thailand enjoyed steady growth from 2000 to 2008, averaging more than 4 percent CAGR per year, due to its well-developed infrastructure, a free-enterprise economy, generally pro-investment policies and strong export industries. The country exports mostly machinery and electronic components, agricultural commodities and jewelry. These sectors continue to drive the economy, accounting for as much as three-quarters of Thailand's GDP.

Vietnam, on the other hand, is also a magnet for foreign direct investment, the report said. The success of doing business in Vietnam is greatly facilitated by the ability to put through effective corporate structure and financial management system to deal with foreign investment laws, taxation, accounting and foreign exchange issues in Vietnam.

The investment registration process and tax management in Vietnam is decentralized, with the municipal and provincial authorities having significant discretions on how businesses are established and managed from a tax and accounting angle. Having a good local partner, experienced staff and localized professional support would greatly assist in the initial startup stage.

http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/11/thailand-floods-impact-on-hi-tech.htmll

Thailand floods impact on the Hi-Tech Industry World Wide - AAPL, DELL

Following rumors of possible delays of Apple ( AAPL) products to  reach the market in Holiday buying season, Dell has warned its revenues could be hit by a worldwide shortage of hard drives caused by the flooding in Thailand. Thailand is a production hub for many global firms, and severe flooding has hurt a wide range of industries. US-based Dell is the world's third-largest personal computer maker. The earnings warning came as Dell announced revenues of $15.4bn and net profits of $893m for the third quarter of 2011. Dell has warned its revenues could be hit by a worldwide shortage of hard drives caused by the flooding in Thailand. Thailand is a production hub for many global firms, and severe flooding has hurt a wide range of industries. US-based Dell is the world's third-largest personal computer maker. The earnings warning came as Dell announced revenues of $15.4bn and net profits of $893m for the third quarter of 2011. I am still bullish on DELL, IMHO the floods will affect DELL very temporally, see my previous post:

http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/10/dell-deutsche-bank-reiterate-buy.html.

It is time to buy now? Year-End Rally.

We had good October, despite Europe crisis.

Typically it  leads to 6% rally in 3 months.

While early  November was rocky, from mid-November until the end of the year is usually one of the best times to own stocks.

For example, in the 17 years from 1990 to 2006, the overall market as measured by the S&P 500 Index ($INX) has gained 5.9% on average. Equally impressive, the market scored gains in 13 of those years. It broke even (less than a 1% change) twice and dropped twice. Its biggest loss was 3.9%

My picks  for Year-End Rally are: Dell, see http://stockpicks247.blogspot.com/2011/10/weekly-prediction-from-october-23-dell.html: BAC, GMR.

Good Luck with this Year-End Rally!