I Know First Research Analyst Discusses Tesla Open Sourcing Patents

ALU: CEO Combes makes case for Alcatel-Lucent's shift

While admitting that his company had missed the boat on a few major technology shifts, Alcatel-Lucent CEO Michel Combes asserted  at a symposium for analysts and journalists that the Shift Plan has his company back on track. The plan will see the company emphasize three focus areas that he believes will return the company to consistent profitability.
Combes told the audience at Alcatel-Lucent’s 2013 Technology Symposium in Basking Ridge, NJ, that the company had not been prepared for such technology shifts as the move to 10-Gbps DWDM in optical transport and CDMA in wireless. The Shift Plan will position the company not to make a similar faux pas as communications networks adapt to eight important trends Combes enumerated:
--An explosion of devices that will see users carrying 10 or more
--A resulting demand for ultra-fast access
--A concurrent requirement for ultra-fast core IP network resources
--The likelihood that cloud services instances will scale to the billions
--The expectation that telcos and cable MSO spending will grow faster thanks to investment in the preceding three areas
--Network infrastructures must create value by enabling rapid service turn up
--Large enterprises and the private sector will invest in carrier-grade network equipment and software
--The vendor community’s value proposition will move to support of cloud networking. Therefore, software and that ability to support application resources sharing will become more important parts of vendors’ product mixes.
Combes said that Alcatel-Lucent will react to these trends by focusing on technologies that support ultra-broadband service provision, cloud networking (which includes IP routing and optical transport), and monetizing its patent portfolio.

ALU is up 4 times, from ($1 to $4) per share last year in a good agreement with this forecast: http://iknowfirst.com/ALU_forecast_chart

How to double your nest eggs?

First of all don't put all your eggs in the same basket.

Buy the rips and sell the peaks.

Very simple, not?

But how can one predict the right market direction?

Stock Market Forecast is 'Gut Feeling' Challenge

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1499932-stock-mark

et-forecast-the-gut-feeling-challenge

Check also I Know First (the article authors) Sample Portfolio Returns 46.27% In Past 10 Months  http://iknowfirst.com/sample-portfolio-return-1-month

ALU: SDN $3.52 billion market by 2018

The interest in software-defined networking (SDN) will translate into a global market worth $3.52 billion by 2018, says Transparency Market Research. The market research firm’s new "Software Defined Networking (SDN) Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast, 2012 - 2018" report predicts SDN spending worldwide will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 61.5% from 2012 to 2018.

The increasing need for efficient infrastructure and mobility, as well as the popularity of cloud services, will drive this growth, according to the report.

Transparency Research cites three main markets for SDN: enterprises, cloud services providers, and telecommunications services providers. Enterprises represented 35% of the SDN market in 2012. However, cloud service providers are expected to be the fastest growing market segment throughout the years the report covers. Transparency Research says that SDN’s ability to reduce opex and capex while enabling the delivery of new services will spearhead its use by cloud service providers.

Cloud provisioning and orchestration products currently dominate the global SDN market, the report states. SDN switching held the second largest revenue share of the SDN market in 2012. SDN products and applications also will be used to design, optimize, secure, and monitor the network, the market research firm predicts.

North America currently is the largest market for SDN technology, thanks to a high degree of standardization and favorable regulatory initiatives. Not surprisingly, Asia Pacific is expected to be the fastest growing region during forecast period, fueled by the increasing adoption of BYOD practices in China, India, and Australia.

In this early stage, the SDN industry is fragmented, the report asserts. Multiple players have moved to address different categories including hardware providers, software developers, and service providers. Transparency Research names Cisco, IBM, NEC, Juniper Networks, Alcatel-Lucent, VMware, HP, Google, Big Switch Networks, Arista Networks, Brocade Communications Systems, Verizon Communications, and Intel among the primary players.

Software Defined Networking (SDN) Market has big gross margin, so ALU and other players will benefit from this $3.52 billion pie.

CSCO: Internet over Everything - $14.4 trillion value by 2022

 

Cisco gets over-excited about IoE.

Cisco has been thinking big on what it's been calling the Internet of Everything. At a recent press event it came up with $14.4 trillion total value by 2022. This might make other interested parties nervous. 

Oh dear. Remember the Gartner hype cycle? It was a wonderfully Tolkienesque take on IT tech hype. The hype cycle starts, said Gartner, with some sort of technology trigger/breakthrough and then moves quickly up to the Peak of Inflated Expectations, plunges into the Trough of Disillusionment, trudges wearily up the Slope of Enlightenment until closure is reached on the Plateau of Productivity. 

The problem is that Cisco's latest numerical outpouring may be urging the industry to climb the dreaded Peak of Inflated Expectations. Just sayin'.

So hype or what? After all, Cisco has form on big number-itis - in fact it recently downgraded its projections on data growth across the Internet. Might it not be getting over-excited again?

Cisco's own definition of the 'Internet of Everything' wraps up the current Internet and all its doings (mobile and video) along with the emerging Internet of Things to come up with huge numbers of dollar worth.  All this connectedness, says Cisco, will result in a boost to corporate profits of 21 per cent by 2022, thus ker-chinging $14.4 trillion into the corporate world.

But how can a ten year projection on as yet vague applications and services be trusted to mean anything at all?  Too many variables operating across too long a time-span, surely?

It's all carefully done using a bottom-up methodology, claimed the networking giant. The presentation given this week itemised where Cisco expects the value to turn up.  According to Fredrick Paul at Read/Write Enterprise it was broken down thus:

- $2.5 trillion in better asset utilisation

- $2.5 trillion in employee productivity

- $2.7 in supply chain logistics

- $3.7 trillion in better customer experience.

- $3 trillion in enabling new innovations.

In fact, Cisco's Internet of Everything wraps together all the big IT/networking trends, such as big data, mobile and cloud as well as the impact of connected devices

Berkshire Hathaway’s ( BRK.A BRK.B): Annual shareholder letter

Mr. Buffet is optimistic on 2013.
It is in a good agreement with  ** I Know First system ** positive stance on the US economy.
Perhaps the most amazing fact is that the S&P 500 in gold stood at 1.1 ounces on October 1928, giving us a price higher than the ratio today. There has been a long stream of dividends since then, but the real price of the equity market is lower today than the level of 84 years ago!
Warren Buffet is hunting for elephants and a bear.
The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway’s  annual letter to shareholders Friday acknowledged sub-par performance in 2012, but proved as readable and quotable as any of his previous  epistles on investing.
You can look through the whole thing here, including as easily digested discussions of accounting as you’re ever likely to see.
But for those with limited time, here’s a look just at 1 of the pithier comments.
Mr. Buffet on the search for new investment opportunities for Berkshire’s huge cash reserves after the acquisition of half of Heinz  HNZ  last month:
 “Charlie and I have again donned our safari outfits and resumed our search for elephants".
Regarding Apple:

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has dropped 50% on multiple occasions says Warren Buffett, responding on CNBC to a question about Apple (AAPL). "You can't run a business to make the stock price go up every day," he says, though allowing Apple may have too much cash.

Great news for ALU: China to require FTTH for new homes

China Daily reports that a new policy from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will mandate that all new residences have a fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) connection where such broadband access networks are available. 

The policy, which goes into effect April 1 of this year.

Alcatel-Lucent  has been chosen to expand China Telecom’s broadband access network, bringing services such as IPTV, video-on-demand, and voice-over-IP (VoIP) services to millions of homes in China.